HD For AT

HD scares the hell out of me. It poses great potential for management, but it could easily kill off more jobs for air talent than voicetracking ever did.

Let's say we're talking about a radio station with a cume of 500,000 (for the sake of simple math). The station bills ten million a year (again, for the sake of simple math)

What happens when listeners stop listening to the main AM or FM station in favor of the HD streams? Those HD listeners have to come from somewhere - and we're potentially talking about a lot of HD streams. Any listener on an HD stream is a listener NOT listening to the main AM or FM station.

Not on the FM station = lower ratings for the FM station.
Lower ratings = less revenue for the FM station.
Less revenue = lower budget for the FM station.
Lower budget = staff cutbacks on the FM station.

Is it really realistic to expect the HD streams to generate enough revenue to make up for the revenue lost on the main AM or FM station?

We've now taken the ratings and revenue one FM used to have and spread them across an FM and a few HD streams. Does any one of them have enough revenue to keep an airstaff?

I think we're all foolishly assuming HD means more options for listeners. It doesn't. HD means more low quality options for listeners. That's an important distinction.

As the main AM or FM station loses listeners to the HD streams, it will become harder and harder to pay air talent on the main signal. Jesus! That's simple math.

500,000 cume on 1 station = revenue = jobs for jocks.
500,000 listeners spread across five streams = your five share becoming five 1 shares.

Let's say that a typical fm station also ends up with up a pair of HD streams. It'll probably end up being more, but I'm keeping the numbers lower than expected to illustrate a point.

In a market of 30 stations, we're now essentially talking about 90 options for listeners thanks to HD. None of these will have the kind of cume we see today. Again, elementary school math tells us that.

Do you really want to compete with 90 stations? How the hell can anybody build an audience large enough to pay for an airstaff? Or promotions? Or marketing?

The people promoting HD don't care because they're high enough in the broadcasting food chain that they're not even broadcasters anymore. They're economists. They're book-keepers. They're accountants. But if you work at an actual radio station (remember them?), HD could be the end of your career. Remember - most satellite radio is jockless. All of those music-only channels on your expanded cable TV? They're jockless. HD could turn terrestrial radio into that as well. The money to pay air talent has to come from somewhere...

Forget all of that.

Let's look at it with an even more simple example. Let's say you get nine friends in on a game of poker. With all ten of you playing, there's money to be won. You're really good, so you're doing most of the winning at that game. Lucky you! Buy me dinner sometime, ok? Thanks.

Eventually, a few people decide to split from the main game and start a second game. And then a few more people leave the first two poker games to start a third.

Now, instead of ten people playing a game of poker, there are ten people playing three smaller games. It's the same amount of money, but it's being spread thinner... no more big winners.

...so much for buying me dinner with your winnings, eh?

That's HD for AT (Air Talent).